TS-071915 — An ultra‑efficient probit‑space ensemble expansion approach triples the size of weather‑forecast ensembles by producing hundreds of realistic “virtual” members from existing runs using minimal compute time and expert statistical knowledge.
Modern weather models are extremely complex, and each forecast can only be simulated a limited number of times. This means forecasters often have just 50–100 versions of a prediction to work with, even though the atmosphere itself is vastly more complicated. With so few samples, important de…