TS-071915 — An ultra‑efficient probit‑space ensemble expansion approach triples the size
of weather‑forecast ensembles by producing hundreds
of realistic
“virtual
” members from existing runs using minimal compute time and expert statistical knowledge.
Modern weather models are extremely complex, and each forecast can only be simulated a limited number of times. This means forecasters often have just 50–100 versions of a prediction to work with, even though the atmosphere itself is vastly more complicated. With so few samples, important de…